The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act

The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act (S. 744) would revise laws governing immigration and the enforcement of those laws, allowing for a significant increase in the number of noncitizens who could lawfully enter the United States permanently or temporarily. The bill also would create a process for many currently unauthorized residents to gain legal status, subject to their meeting conditions specified in the bill. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have prepared an estimate of the cost of that legislation to the federal government, including projections of the bill's effects on both federal spending and federal revenues. That cost estimate reflects some, but not all, of the effects that S. 744 would have on the economy. This supplemental report provides estimates of the overall economic impact of the legislation and of the incremental federal budgetary effects of changes in the economy that the cost estimate does not reflect. Ascertaining the effects of immigration policies on the economy and the federal budget is complicated and highly uncertain, even in the short run, and that task is even more difficult for longer periods; for that reason, this report addresses the next 20 years but does not attempt to look over a longer horizon.