Structural Break Analysis in Agricultural Production of Bangladesh

Economic structural change refers to a long-term shift in the fundamental structure of an economy, which is often linked to growth and economic development. Structural change is a common problem in time series data and it is observed that after a certain period of time, parameters change their structure or behavior. This can lead to huge forecasting errors and unreliability of the model. Structural break has used mainly to tackle misleading forecasting. In our study structural change of parameters of Cobb-Douglas production function has been examined for the agricultural sector of Bangladesh. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation procedure has been used for estimation purpose. In our study, we have considered the time series data for the period 1980-81 to 2010-11. Stationarity, Multicollinearity, autocorrelation & heteroscedasticity has been checked with different tests and eliminated by remedial measures. To account for structural break points we have used Chow test approach and break point justified by Quandt test, Cumsum test & Cumsum of Squares test.We have used dummy variable approach to identify the coefficient(s) which were responsible for structural changes.