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Modeling History for the Future: The Role of Powers
Modeling History for the Future: The Role of Powers in Bloomington, MN
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Modeling History for the Future
The volume targets historians, political analysts, strategists and economists who will find here an intertemporal
value added
tool to analyze historical trends and events and who also wish to generate scenarios for the medium to long term.
When visiting libraries or bookshops it strikes how books in the History or Current Affairs section are exclusively of a narrative kind. The author, therefore, has taken up the task to formalize History by means of a logical framework or model.
The title 'Modeling History for the Future' summarizes what the book is about: taking stock of relevant variables, connect these through a model or framework to 'explain' trends and events of human history, then providing a tool to generate scenarios for the future. The subtitle refers to Powers because of the role of Powers as organizations in the making of History.
How does it work?
It is postulated that History is connected to the characteristics of -- and the processes followed by – Powers or Forces. Powers or Forces are considered to be Organizations -- with their active members or followers. It is further recognized that these Forces interact in the real world. Once the relevant organizations on stage – with their attributes -- are identified, the relationships between them are formalized: the How, the Why (goals and drivers) and the contextual factors ?
The model is then tested for its robustness by simulating
ex post
seven cases: federalism in Belgium, the war in Bosnia (1992-1995), the collapse of the Soviet Union, the rise of Putin, the end of apartheid in South Africa, the Arab Spring, the fall of Kabul to the Taliban (2021).
Finally -- after having studied the anatomy of forecasting by other authors -- the model is used to explore the future with multiple scenarios (for twelve countries).
The research journey has also enabled to identify processes or facts which were heroically called 'Laws of Powers'.
The volume targets historians, political analysts, strategists and economists who will find here an intertemporal
value added
tool to analyze historical trends and events and who also wish to generate scenarios for the medium to long term.
When visiting libraries or bookshops it strikes how books in the History or Current Affairs section are exclusively of a narrative kind. The author, therefore, has taken up the task to formalize History by means of a logical framework or model.
The title 'Modeling History for the Future' summarizes what the book is about: taking stock of relevant variables, connect these through a model or framework to 'explain' trends and events of human history, then providing a tool to generate scenarios for the future. The subtitle refers to Powers because of the role of Powers as organizations in the making of History.
How does it work?
It is postulated that History is connected to the characteristics of -- and the processes followed by – Powers or Forces. Powers or Forces are considered to be Organizations -- with their active members or followers. It is further recognized that these Forces interact in the real world. Once the relevant organizations on stage – with their attributes -- are identified, the relationships between them are formalized: the How, the Why (goals and drivers) and the contextual factors ?
The model is then tested for its robustness by simulating
ex post
seven cases: federalism in Belgium, the war in Bosnia (1992-1995), the collapse of the Soviet Union, the rise of Putin, the end of apartheid in South Africa, the Arab Spring, the fall of Kabul to the Taliban (2021).
Finally -- after having studied the anatomy of forecasting by other authors -- the model is used to explore the future with multiple scenarios (for twelve countries).
The research journey has also enabled to identify processes or facts which were heroically called 'Laws of Powers'.
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