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Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets

Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets in Bloomington, MN
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Historical and recent developments at international financial markets show that it is easy to loose money, while it is difficult to predict future developments and op- mize decision-making towards maximizing returns and minimizing risk. One of the reasons of our inability to make reliable predictions and to make optimal decisions is the growing complexity of the global economy. This is especially true for the f- eign exchange market (FX market) which is considered as one of the largest and most liquid financial markets. Its grade of efficiencyand its complexityis one of the starting points of this volume. From the high complexity of the FX market, Christian Ullrich deduces the - cessity to use tools from machine learning and artificial intelligence, e.g., support vector machines, and to combine such methods with sophisticated financial mod- ing techniques. The suitability of this combination of ideas is demonstrated by an empirical study and by simulation. I am pleased to introduce this book to its - dience, hoping that it will provide the reader with interesting ideas to support the understanding of FX markets and to help to improve risk management in difficult times. Moreover, I hope that its publication will stimulate further research to contribute to the solution of the many open questions in this area.